Chapter 304: "You Understand Probability Theory Too?" (Part 4)
In the blink of an eye, they arrived at the seventh level.
...
Standing in the square, the challengers who had not yet stepped forward looked in the direction of the elder with eyes full of envy. They knew that consuming Heavenly Pride Fortune could temporarily increase one's luck, but they had never used it this way. After all, it seemed wasteful.
It appears that possessing a treasure like Heavenly Pride Fortune, which can temporarily boost luck, allows one to pass this level effectively.
The previous level had rewarded them with quite a bit of Earth Pride Luck.
But all of that is in a sealed state and cannot be used now; these rewards can only truly be obtained after leaving the Secret Realm.
However...
Many people's eyes flickered with secret delight, for they had already memorized the elder's route. All they needed to do was let the elder go first and then follow his path to continue advancing.
Someone willing to pave the way by putting themselves at risk naturally pleased them.
At this time, everyone subconsciously remained silent, fearing the elder might realize and refuse to lead.
At that moment—
All the challengers looked at the elder, who had reached the eighth stair, suddenly froze, and noticed that the dice above the elder's head had stopped at the position of... "one". If it's at one...
No time was given for people to ponder this further.
The next moment!
"Boom!!!"
Suddenly, a deafening thunderclap resounded from the sky, followed by a massive Heavenly Thunder bolt crashing down, accurately striking the elder on the eighth step.
When the Heavenly Thunder dispersed.
The elder's figure was no longer visible on the eighth step, only some charred remains float drifting away in the wind, barely proving that what everyone had seen was not an illusion.
"Dead...dead?"
A man gazed in horror at the scene before him, his tone full of confusion and fear. Why, even after consuming a "wisp of Heavenly Pride Fortune", greatly increasing his luck for a period, did he still randomly end up with a "one"?
This doesn't make sense!
Could it be that even Heavenly Pride Fortune was insufficient?
For a moment, the terrifying emotion spread within the challengers' hearts again. However, this delay left little time until the thirty-minute mark, and a middle-aged man, taking advantage of everyone's distraction, was the first to leap onto the first step, landing precisely where the elder had before.
Mist spread out again at his feet, and everyone immediately snapped to attention, looking towards this man.
As the man lowered his head to pick up the white Top-grade Spirit Stone, he realized for some reason, the mist at his feet didn't dissipate like the elder's, failing to materialize into a Spirit Stone.
Feeling perplexed, the man instinctively looked at everyone, only to see the fear in their eyes.
He froze for a moment.
Then a shocking possibility flashed through his mind, and he trembled as he looked up at the dice above his head. As expected, the dice was now resting on "one".
The next moment!
"No!!!"
The sky was split again by Heavenly Thunder amidst the man's heart-wrenching, stubborn cries.
Apparently.
Even on the same tile, stepping on it doesn't mean the same dice roll. The dice roll is entirely random, which means stepping on that tile has no meaningful impact since the dice will be rolled anew.
...
"Understood."
Fat Long gazed dazedly at the eighteen steps: "So each dice roll has a half probability of a bad event, namely one, two, or three."
"Though we haven't seen two, we can infer from one and three that three can cause a minor disaster, potentially causing minor injuries, and two means serious injuries but non-fatal."
"One means certain death."
"So, stepping on a tile, there's a one-sixth probability of sudden death."
"If we dissect this level's mechanics with probability theory, the occurrence of 'event A', which means sudden death, has a one-sixth probability. In 18 independent trials, expecting event A to never occur to successfully clear the level."
"Thus—"
"The probability that event A doesn't occur in all 18 trials is (5/6)^18."
"Finally calculated...the probability of survival is 0.000003326"
"Which means purely by luck, the ultimate survival rate is about 3326 out of a million."
"Three thousand or so out of a million can survive."
"Uh-huh."
Fat Long silently nodded, scratching his nose: "In a survival rate calculated purely by luck being so low, it can basically be said this level isn't testing luck. There must be another way to clear it."
"..."
Chen Qiu withdrew his gaze from the patterns on the ground with an odd expression, turned to Fat Long: "You actually know probability theory? Your mental arithmetic is quite fast."
"Know a bit, I guess."
Fat Long responded humbly: "It should be calculated like this, maybe with some deviations, but not too far off. All I know is this, but I can confirm one thing, and the number is indeed frightening."
"When calculating single occurrence probability."
"For instance, if 'event A' didn't occur on the first seventeen steps, then on the eighteenth, the probability of 'event A' is still one-sixth, which isn't an issue."
"After all, each event exists independently."
"When accounting for total probability, it's very low."
"Uh-huh."
Chen Qiu nodded lightly, looking over at many challengers who had already begun risking their luck on the steps, whispered: "Your number sounds far more frightening than the level's rules, and if they'd known, they probably wouldn't have stepped onto the stairs so easily."
The level rule panel makes it seem like although the probability is low, it doesn't feel excessively low.
All it takes is 18 cases of good luck.
And there's a five-sixths probability, too.
However, objectively, the calculated probability of survival is frighteningly low, practically nonexistent, which sheds light on why that elder perished despite using Heavenly Pride Fortune.
After all, Heavenly Pride Fortune merely enhances your luck, not making you invincible.
With only 3000 or so survivors out of a million chances, no matter how luck-enhancing, achieving one hundred percent is almost impossible.
"But..."
Fat Long simply shrugged and smiled: "Regardless, we don't need to gamble on this probability. Brother Qiu, you were observing the ground patterns earlier, surely you discovered a way to clear it?"
"No."
"No?"
Fat Long was slightly stunned, instinctively murmured: "No? Then Brother Qiu, why did you avert your gaze from the patterns on the ground? I thought you were...were already..."
"Oh."
Chen Qiu lowered his head again, inspecting the ground patterns casually: "Wasn't it because you were talking to me? I looked up to see you, common courtesy."
"Most of the time, I'm quite courteous."
"However, you were right about one thing."
"I do have a rough idea, but I'm unsure if it's the final solution. Needs testing."