NOVEL NEXT chapter 125 - After All, I Know the Future
Arnold narrowed his eyes slightly.
“The going rates for gold and silver across the nations?”
She nodded.
“I was curious personally and asked President Tally of the Aria Company to compile it.”
They were the papers she’d received from Tally in their morning meeting.
Rishe /N_o_v_e_l_i_g_h_t/ had read them closely and grasped what she needed. After that, she handed the documents to Arnold.
“The freshness varies, but even the oldest data is from half a year ago. Will this help, even a little, with Your Highness’s plan?”
“…Hah.”
Arnold shot her a sardonic, amused look.
“And how did you know I was considering recoinage?”
(…As expected of Your Highness Arnold—this alone was enough for him to catch my intent.)
How could he see that far with only this list?
While marveling inwardly, Rishe answered:
“I felt that Your Highness’s objective here wasn’t merely to inspect the exchange offices… and while you were thinking, you kept touching my hand—tracing this ring.”
Feeling a bit abashed, she brushed the ring with her fingertip herself.
“Yesterday, as you touched it, you spoke of the Koyol Nation, didn’t you?”
“…Yes. You inferred all that from just that?”
“It took me a little while.”
Both of them knew the problems Koyol faced.
One was that, lacking military strength, the nation had been half-subjugated by neighboring states.
Worse, its mines were beginning to yield fewer gemstones and less gold and silver, a trend expected to deepen.
That first problem now had a path around it thanks to the accord Kyle and Arnold had concluded.
What remained was the fact that the underlying cause itself had not been averted.
In short, Koyol would stop producing gemstones and bullion either way.
“Needless to say, the gold and silver coins used by every country are minted with real gold and silver content.”
The value of those coins is determined by the amount of precious metal they contain.
And a respectable share of the world’s circulating bullion once came from Koyol.
“At this rate, the circulating volume will drop sharply everywhere, won’t it?”
“It will. And countries will lack the bullion they need to mint coins.”
What would happen then—
Rishe had already witnessed that outcome in the future.
That was why she had Tally gather information on bullion flows—to take countermeasures.
“To keep an economy moving, currency must be issued on a regular basis. But if you can’t mint it because you lack the raw material, that country’s economy will collapse.”
“…And yet Galkhein does have gold and silver mines, doesn’t it?”
Since coming here, Rishe had studied Galkhein’s internal affairs whenever she could. Most of the richest veins lay in lands that had been “other countries” until recently—territory absorbed into Galkhein by wars waged under Arnold’s father, the Emperor.
“Which is to say, both gold and silver can be mined here in abundance…”
“Right. This country won’t be greatly affected by the drop in Koyol’s exports.”
“Then why is Your Highness moving over a bullion shortage?”
“What a strange question. You understood the reason well enough to predict recoinage and hand me this dossier.”
His teasing smile hit the mark.
As he said, she had formed a working hypothesis—but whether it was correct, only he could confirm.
Prompted by the look that said Let’s hear your prediction, Rishe began:
“…Even if exports from Koyol stop, Galkhein still has abundant bullion. Meanwhile, in other countries, demand rises…and so do prices.”
What’s scarce grows dear; what’s plentiful grows cheap. That’s the first principle of trade.
“If five grams of pure gold sells for fifty thousand gold here, but it sells for a hundred thousand elsewhere, people will carry Galkhein’s gold coins out and sell them as precious metal—not as currency.”
“Exactly. And unlike ordinary goods, it’s hard for a state to restrict this ‘export’ by decree. Currency is meant to be carried.”
There would absolutely be people who hauled Galkhein’s coins abroad and sold them as bullion.
They would then return with foreign currency and take it to Galkhein’s exchange offices.
Naturally, that foreign money would be exchanged back into Galkhein gold coins—and the number of coins they received would exceed the number they’d originally taken out.
“If gold and silver keep being carried abroad like that, even Galkhein will tumble into a bullion shortage in no time.”
Because Galkhein’s production was stable, price gaps with other countries were inevitable.
And it was difficult to blithely raise or lower anything that touched the intrinsic value of gold and silver coins.
(The safer a country’s bullion production is from sudden spikes, the more dangerous times like these become.)
In a past life, Rishe had seen a gold-rich nation fall into that very trap.
At the time, Koyol had claimed its mine closures were to redirect manpower to a war with Galkhein. In truth, the veins had run dry.
Even if war were avoided, a bullion surge across nations would have been unavoidable.
“Galkhein performs recoinage regularly, doesn’t it?”
“Are you planning to remake Galkhein’s coins with less gold and silver content?”
Arnold turned his gaze toward the sea.
“…Something like that.”
For him, the reply carried an oddly ambiguous note.
“That way, we can mint gold and silver coins with smaller amounts of bullion… and if we pass the surplus on to other nations, it should dampen extreme price spikes.”
“…Rescuing other countries is necessary for Galkhein as well.”
“Exactly. For this country to remain wealthy, our trading partners must also have wealth.”
Arnold’s statecraft, as ever, resembled the commerce Rishe knew.
A merchant who tries to keep all the profit is a fool.
It’s pointless to hoard assets alone; if those around you lack surplus, nothing new flows back to you.
“Was Your Highness’s main reason for touring the exchange offices here to check whether other nations’ bullion prices were shifting?”
“And if I said yes?”
Arnold let out a faint laugh and flicked the papers she’d given him with the back of his middle finger.
“You divined exactly the information I wanted. I hadn’t intended to leave you any hints.”
(Because I know the future.)
Even with the cause disguised, she had seen Koyol cease exporting bullion—and the economic disorder that followed.
By working backward from that future and observing Arnold’s movements, she could arrive at a rough picture.
For her part, she was more astonished that Arnold could act so precisely with only present-day facts.
…No. There is one future His Highness Arnold knows as well.
Several years from now, there would be economic turmoil in many places—with a deeper cause.
It was the war Arnold would start.
The fighting would draw nations in; small countries would be exhausted outright, and great powers would pour fortunes into their militaries.
(Perhaps his actions proceed on the premise that he himself will start that war…)
Rishe lowered her eyes.
For all she’d tried to do, it still felt as if she hadn’t changed a thing.
(Was Your Highness’s purpose in coming to this town really recoinage…?)
A prickling impatience smoldered. She took a deep breath—when—
“Ah.”
The sea wind snatched her white hat away.
Rishe leapt to her feet and ran after it as it skittered off. Just then, someone descended the stairway that led from the castle.
“Hello. The rain’s cleared up completely, hasn’t it?”
“…Prince Curtis.”
Raul—who had picked up her hat—narrowed his red eyes with a smile and walked toward them.