Holy Roman Empire

The end of the Austro-Russian alliance was like a thunderclap out of a clear sky, instantly shocking the world.

Hot topics like the War of the Pacific, disputes over the free trade system, or the secret history of Queen Victoria were all overshadowed.

Anyone with a bit of political acumen understood that the international landscape was about to be reshuffled again.

With the Austro-Russian alliance gone, the last obstacle restraining the Prussian-Polish Federation had disappeared. The Prussian government would not wait for Russia to fully prepare before launching a war.

For years, Prussia and Russia had been preparing for war, with both countries achieving leaps in the development of their military industries and transportation networks.

Due to the Austro-Russian alliance, Russia and Austria had engaged in deep cooperation in the military-industrial sector. To maximize cost savings, officials of the Russian government had directly replicated Austria’s military-industrial system.

In the long term, this direct replication stifled Russia’s ability to develop an independent military-industrial sector, a move that would inevitably have disastrous consequences.

However, in the short term, it greatly enhanced Russia’s military-industrial capabilities, bringing them directly to a world-class level.

What drives the development of the military industry?

While many factors need to be considered, it can ultimately be summarized in a few words: throwing money at it!

The Russian government was well aware of its own shortcomings in research and development capabilities and, lacking sufficient funding, simply chose to cooperate with Austria.

The Prussian-Polish Federation, however, took a different approach. From the very beginning, the Kingdom of Prussia pursued a path of independent research and development. Due to financial constraints, Prussia’s domestic military industry had, in fact, fallen behind.

The British couldn’t help much in this regard. The quality of British Army equipment was average. It was not because of a lack of technical capability, but because their army was small, resulting in limited procurement orders. This naturally discouraged military-industrial enterprises from investing heavily in research and development.

This situation persisted until the Prussian-German territorial exchange. With the Rhineland changing hands and the barriers between Prussia and France removed, it was only natural for the Prussian government to draw closer to the French.

In recent years, military-industrial technology exchanges between Prussia and France have increased significantly.

Of course, Prussia and France are not allies, and France has no obligation to favor the Prussian-Polish Federation. Cooperation between the two countries’ military industries has not reached the depth of the Austro-Russian partnership.

Their collaboration is limited to technical exchanges, and further integration is impossible—at least until Prussia and France adopt unified industrial standards, which would enable seamless cooperation.

In theory, the unified Austro-Russian industrial standards and the Russian government’s direct replication of Austrian military systems should give Russia an edge in the arms race.

However, Russia’s weak industrial foundation and the lack of skilled industrial workers mean that products made with the same equipment have a higher defect rate.

These deficiencies essentially bring the military industries of Prussia and Russia to the same level. Even if there are differences, they are limited to certain weapons and equipment and do not indicate a generational gap.

Compared to the military industry, the changes in transportation are even more obvious.

Since the establishment of the Prussian-Polish Federation, the Prussian government has, in just a few short years, launched construction of 10,000 kilometers of railways in Poland. One-third of these lines are already operational, and the remaining sections are expected to be completed within two to three years.

Not only is Poland seeing extensive railway construction, but other areas of Prussia are also actively expanding. For instance, in Lithuania, two main lines have been planned along with auxiliary branch lines totaling an impressive 4,000 kilometers.

As of now, the total operational railway mileage in the Prussian-Polish Federation has reached 26,000 kilometers. Once the Prussian government’s plans are fully realized, the total railway mileage will exceed 37,000 kilometers.

This figure would make the Prussian-Polish Federation’s railway network larger than that of France, positioning it as the third-largest railway power in Europe, only behind Austria and Russia.

While the Prussian-Polish Federation is pushing forward with railway construction, Alexander II of Russia has not been idle, recognizing the critical importance of transportation.

In just a decade, the Russian government has initiated the construction of 34,000 kilometers of railways, of which 26,000 kilometers are now operational. Combined with pre-existing lines, the total operational railway mileage in the Russian Empire is approaching 30,000 kilometers.

From the raw numbers, the Russian Empire appears to surpass the Prussian-Polish Federation. However, the reality is quite the opposite.

The Russian Empire’s territory is more than twenty times the size of the Prussian-Polish Federation, yet their total railway mileage differs by less than 15%. The disparity in transportation infrastructure between the two is therefore glaringly obvious.

Both sides are racing against time, but the Prussian-Polish Federation holds a clear advantage. Due to geographical constraints, Russia is inherently at a disadvantage when it comes to railway construction.

Don’t be misled by the seemingly higher total railway mileage of the Russian Empire. in terms of transport capacity, it still falls short of the Prussian-Polish Federation. This is largely due to climatic conditions. Once winter arrives, Russian railways struggle to operate at full load capacity.

From a transportation perspective, for Russia to match the current level of the Prussian-Polish Federation, it would need to build at least 150,000 kilometers of railways. This would only connect the major cities in the European part of Russia, and if we consider Asia, doubling that might not even be sufficient.

Clearly, this is an impossible goal. The Prussian government won’t give Russia the time required to achieve this. If the Russian government were to solve its transportation problems, a war would be unwinnable for Prussia unless they could achieve miracles.

The entire world is focused on the dissolution of the Russo-Austrian alliance. Beyond its political implications, the core issue is that this dissolution essentially signals the countdown to the Russo-Prussian War.

Even casual observers have begun weighing in on the matter. As for one of the key players, the Russian government, their reaction was even more intense. Upon hearing the bad news, Alexander II reportedly smashed numerous valuable artifacts in a fit of rage.

“Those damned Habsburg bastards, a group of traitorous dogs…”

The Tsar’s curses echoed through the Winter Palace. It’s no surprise Alexander II was so furious. To maintain the Russo-Austrian alliance, Russia had already made significant concessions and extended various goodwill gestures to the Austrian government.

Yet all of this effort was in vain. Not only was a renewal of the alliance for another 30 years out of reach, but even a mere five-year extension was rejected outright by the Austrian government.

Alexander II’s reforms were nearly complete, but he needed time to convert those reforms into tangible national power. Every single day was crucial for the Russian Empire.

The Russo-Austrian alliance had afforded Austria precious time for peaceful development. Now, Russia desperately needed the same opportunity. Austria’s sudden declaration of non-cooperation left Alexander II in utter despair.

All that’s needed is to buy five more years, and the Russian Empire will have the strength to decisively overwhelm the Prussian-Polish Federation.

This disparity is not only a matter of size but also one of developmental potential. Both nations are developing rapidly, but the Prussian-Polish Federation has already hit its ceiling, while the Russian Empire is just beginning to unlock its potential.

An enraged Tsar is a frightening figure, and none of the ministers dared to provoke him further. Sensing the tension, Alexander Alexandrovich reluctantly stepped forward to offer his advice, “Father, now is not the time for anger. Since the Russo-Austrian alliance will not be renewed, the last obstacle preventing the Prussian-Polish Federation from waging war is now gone.”

“Hmph!” Alexander II scoffed angrily, “What’s there to fear? Do you think that without Austria, the great Russian Empire cannot defeat its enemies?”

“Of course not,” Alexander Alexandrovich replied, “but the current situation is incredibly dire. Even after we made significant concessions, the Austrian government refused to compromise. This clearly points to hidden dealings behind the scenes.

We can reasonably speculate that there’s some kind of secret agreement between Prussia and Austria. The Prussian government has limited leverage, but the only thing that could truly entice the Austrian government is…”

He trailed off, but even as he spoke, Alexander Alexandrovich began to believe his own theory. Of course, fundamentally, this was just a convenient excuse to justify the situation. No one truly believed that Prussia and Austria would openly collaborate.

For political figures, controlling emotions is a basic skill. While Alexander II’s anger was genuine, it hadn’t reached the point of being uncontrollable. His outburst served to cover up the failures of his foreign policy since ascending the throne.

There was no other way, his earlier pro-Prussian stance had left him vulnerable to criticism. With the infamous example of Peter III as a cautionary tale, tolerance for such missteps within Russia had dropped significantly.

Even though Alexander II ultimately made the right decision by decisively shifting his political stance, his earlier pro-Prussian and anti-Austrian foreign policies still faced internal criticism.

Now that the Russo-Austrian alliance had ended, there was no doubt that some within Russia would blame him for the fallout. The nobles who had suffered losses during his reforms had long been looking for an opportunity to strike back, and Alexander II needed to eliminate this possibility.

This was why Alexander Alexandrovich attributed the dissolution of the alliance to collusion between Prussia and Austria.

The pride of the Russian people remained intact, and under no circumstances could the Russian Empire tolerate Austria unifying Central Europe. Such an event would spell the end of Russia’s dream of becoming the dominant power in Europe.

The Russian government could not compromise on the issue of German unification, which made the Russo-Austrian alliance’s collapse understandable. The explanation was simple: the Prussian government was more flexible and willing to make concessions on this matter.

Whether this was true or not was irrelevant, as long as the reasoning was politically acceptable, it was sufficient.

After a moment of silence, Alexander II seemed to be calming himself. “Sigh…”

He then continued, “So be it. What’s done is done. We should focus on discussing how to deal with the situation now!”

The dissolution of the Russo-Austrian alliance had not caught the Russian government entirely off guard. From the moment Russia decided to join the pound-gold system, the separation between the two nations had become inevitable.

Minister of War Harald spoke solemnly, “Your Majesty, without the Russo-Austrian alliance, the initiative in war is no longer ours alone.

From the current situation, the Prussian-Polish Federation’s railway plan will be completed in at most three years, or as soon as two. Meanwhile, our railway plan will require at least five years.

In terms of timing, we no longer have the advantage. The enemy will not give us that much time. Now, we are left with only two options.

Either we launch a war early, while neither side is fully prepared, or we strengthen our defenses and wait for the Prussian-Polish Federation to finish their preparations and launch an attack against us.”

This “five years” is merely a theoretical estimate. In reality, everyone knows that the Russian Empire’s transportation issues cannot be solved in just five years. At most, it will only connect the major cities.

Still, achieving this would already be significant, approaching the state of transportation in European Russia just before World War I.

Though still lacking, it would at least support the deployment of over a million troops on the frontlines. This would be sufficient to wage war against the Prussian-Polish Federation.

The population of the Russian Empire is 2.8 times that of the Prussian-Polish Federation, giving it a much higher capacity to endure casualties. In a war of attrition, Russia would have a strong chance of victory.

Unfortunately, time is not on their side, and a decision must now be made. This war is no ordinary conflict. The Russian government cannot afford to lose since defeat would mean that the Russian Empire would not recover for decades.

The room grew heavy with tension as everyone felt the weight of the choice before them. Clearly, this was no easy decision.

Minister of Internal Affairs Mikhail said, “We cannot wait for the enemy to complete their plans. Right now, they are preoccupied with building railways, and a large portion of their funds is tied up, leaving limited resources for war.

If we allow them to finish, the situation will be entirely different. At that point, they will be able to concentrate all their financial resources on the war effort.

Times have changed, and the international situation has undergone dramatic shifts. We no longer command the same level of fear from Britain and France. The British will not support the Prussian-Polish Federation as much as they did during the last war.

From what I understand, the Federation’s financial situation is dire. If not for the earlier sale of the Rhineland, they would have already gone bankrupt.

Once the war begins, the Prussian government will quickly face a financial crisis. A government with limited repayment capacity, coupled with an uncertain war outcome, will find it difficult to secure external financing.”

Wars are fought with money. After the Near East War and the previous Russo-Prussian War, the Russian government gained clarity. It no longer assumes that a second Russo-Prussian War can be resolved quickly.

If the conflict drags on, it will become a test of financial endurance for both sides. As for troops, the Russian government has no shortage. As long as there is money, there will be soldiers.

The Prussian-Polish Federation’s poor financial state primarily stems from issues in the Polish government. Prussia, after selling off land, has escaped its financial crisis.

It is clear to everyone that Poland is highly likely to become a battleground, so no capitalist is willing to invest in railroads there.

Currently, the railways being built by the Federation are almost entirely government-funded. This clearly cannot be sustained by the government’s annual tax revenues alone, making borrowing inevitable.

In contrast, the Russian Empire is somewhat better off. Its vast territory ensures that even if war breaks out, it will primarily be confined to the borders, leaving the heartland regions secure enough to attract railway investments.

For example, the railway from St. Petersburg to Moscow is a project funded by the Austrian Railway Company.

This is entirely understandable. Even the staunchest supporters of the Prussian-Polish Federation do not believe they can march all the way to Moscow. Wilhelm I is no Napoleon, his military capabilities are far less extraordinary.

Minister of Finance Koksal shook his head, “Sir, let us not forget that our financial situation is not much better. Even though we have made some preparations in advance, the Ministry of Finance still cannot come up with sufficient funds for the war in the short term.”

Wars are insatiable beasts that devour gold. It is entirely normal for a war to consume several years, or even decades, of financial revenue. Large-scale wars are the greatest disasters for national finances.

Unfortunately, Russia has endured such disasters twice in the past 30 years, and now faces a third one.

While the Russian Empire is vast and resource-rich, even the deepest reserves cannot withstand such relentless strain.

Tax revenues alone are clearly insufficient. No matter how oppressive the taxation, the government cannot raise enough war funds solely through taxes.

The best source of war funding is financing through the financial markets. Unfortunately, the Russian government lacks sufficient credibility. Attempting to raise funds on the international market is practically a pipe dream.

Minister of Internal Affairs Mikhail, however, was unfazed, “If we don’t have money, we must find ways to raise it. If we can’t gather enough domestically, we must seek it abroad.

London, Paris, Vienna—any of these financial markets have the capacity to provide us with the necessary funds. As long as the incentives we offer are compelling enough, why should we fear not being able to borrow?

Cost considerations are irrelevant. This war is unavoidable. It is no longer a matter of whether we want to fight or not. Whatever price we pay now will be far less than the losses we would face if we were to lose the war.”