Holy Roman Empire

Early in the morning, Franz had just finished his exercise routine and had not yet had the chance to enjoy breakfast when Foreign Minister Wessenberg hurried in with alarming news.

“Your Majesty, we’ve received word from our embassy in Bolivia. Two days ago, Chilean forces invaded Bolivia, disrupting the balance of power in South America.”

The Austrian government’s primary concern with this war lay in the saltpeter trade. Due to its colonial interests in South America, Austria’s relationships with Chile and Argentina were less than cordial.

Since 1863, when vast saltpeter deposits were discovered in Bolivia’s Atacama Province along the Pacific coast, it had become Austria’s main source of saltpeter imports.

As trade between the two nations increased, Austria’s relationship with Bolivia also grew closer, nearing the level of quasi-alliance.

However, the Austrian government’s strategic focus was not on South America, and its involvement in the region remained limited, preventing further deepening of ties.

Nonetheless, as a major power, Austria could hardly avoid playing the role of an international meddler. Its lack of prominence in this regard was mainly due to Britain’s unparalleled prowess at overshadowing everyone else.

Limited investment in South America did not mean there was none at all. The Austrian government had been supporting smaller allies in the region, though these relationships were shallow and better described as partnerships.

Bolivia was one such partner, receiving military assistance from Austria. Unfortunately, Bolivia’s government was not particularly astute. Observing the covert competition among Britain, France, and Austria in South America, it adopted a strategy of playing both sides.

However, adopting a balancing act requires resources. With resources, it is a flexible diplomatic policy. Without resources, it’s like walking a tightrope. Unsurprisingly, Bolivia belonged to the latter category—a nation without the necessary capital to sustain such a strategy.

As for the saltpeter trade, while it may seem important, in reality, it’s not that significant. For Britain, France, and Austria, acquiring cheap saltpeter was ideal, but even without it, they could produce their own.

At this point in time, fertilizers weren’t being produced, so the demand for saltpeter wasn’t particularly high. Even if domestic production costs were a bit higher, it wouldn’t pose much of a challenge for the three major powers.

Moreover, Bolivia was just one of the saltpeter exporters, far from having a monopoly. Neighboring Chile was also a major exporter of saltpeter.

Once again, it was proven that being indecisive and opportunistic leads to no good. After failing to secure firm alliances, Bolivia was abandoned by all parties, while Chile aligned itself with the British.

During the wars of independence, Chile and Bolivia had been allies, fighting together against Spanish colonial rule. However, sharing hardships is easier than sharing prosperity.

The Atacama Desert, located at the borders of Chile, Bolivia, and Peru, had never been clearly divided under Spanish colonial rule.

After gaining independence, Bolivia claimed the central Antofagasta region of the Atacama Desert, Peru controlled the northern Tarapacá region, and Chile took possession of the southern portion. All three nations declared sovereignty over parts of the desert.

If the desert had been resource-poor, the matter might have been forgotten. Unfortunately, the region was not only rich in resources but exceptionally so, leading to inevitable conflicts.

Chile, being the stronger power, now had the backing of Britain, giving it the capability to resort to force.

Franz asked with concern, “Has Britain intervened?”

Franz had no interest in delving deeply into the causes and consequences of the matter. Ultimately, it all boiled down to interests. Right and wrong were the least important considerations in international politics.

In the age of imperialism, if one were to talk about fairness and justice, it would most likely only apply in situations of evenly matched powers or when a major power intervened. Otherwise, justice always belonged to the victor.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg responded, “So far, there are no signs of British involvement. From a perspective of interests, maintaining stability in South America aligns more closely with British goals.

If the Chileans were to win the war, they would gain a complete monopoly on saltpeter exports, which isn’t something the British would want to see.

Of course, that’s only based on an analysis of visible interests. If the British have a secret agreement with Chile, that’s a different matter entirely.

Our relationship with Chile is very cold, and our influence in the region is limited. At the moment, we lack the ability to confirm whether there are any clandestine dealings between the two.”

Franz began pacing. He hadn’t paid much attention to South American history, only vaguely recalling that there had been a War of the Pacific between Chile, Bolivia, and Peru.

He had no clear understanding of the exact timeline, events, or the positions taken by the great powers. Even if he did, it wouldn’t be of much use. Under the influence of the butterfly effect, the international situation had already changed beyond recognition.

Franz asked, “Setting external factors aside, who do you think will ultimately emerge victorious in this war?”

Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “I’m more optimistic about the Chileans. In terms of military strength, Chile clearly surpasses Bolivia.

Although in recent years Bolivia has tried to learn from us militarily, their government is too incompetent.

If they had focused on learning from any single European power, they might have achieved success. Instead, they tried to learn from multiple countries at once, resulting in a military force that’s a mishmash of incompatible systems.

Purely from a military standpoint, Bolivia’s chances of victory are almost zero. However, if other countries get involved, the situation becomes less predictable.

The relationships between South American countries are complex, and it’s hard to untangle them quickly. This war over the Atacama Desert’s ownership has also drawn in Peru.

Among the three nations, Chile currently has the strongest military. Neither Peru nor Bolivia alone can match the Chileans.

Given their shared interests, it’s highly likely that Peru and Bolivia will form an alliance. If they manage to put aside their differences, the outcome of the war will become much harder to predict.”

Franz hesitated over whether to intervene in the South American war. The main issue was weighing the investment against the returns. He was unsure if the final outcome would justify the resources and effort required.

Austria’s influence in South America is limited, and relying solely on the power of Austrian South America offers no real capacity for intervention.

As for Austrian Central America’s military forces, they cannot be easily mobilized either, as doing so would disrupt the balance in North America. Without sufficient strength to deter others, there was no guarantee that the Union or the Confederacy wouldn’t seize the opportunity to stir up trouble.

Taking risks for the sake of the South American war is certainly not worth it. Franz was clear on priorities. Allowing the United States to grow unchecked is the real threat, while Chile is hardly worth worrying about.

For Chile to become a major power, they’d have to annex Argentina which is clearly impossible. Even setting aside the opinions of the Great Powers, Argentina itself is not weaker than Chile.

After hesitating for a moment, Franz made a decision, “Let’s observe for now. As long as our interests aren’t harmed, we’ll maintain neutrality for the time being.”

This was the safest approach. Austria’s interests in South America weren’t significant enough to justify a heavy investment.

If intervention were necessary, it should come as a response to being solicited for help, not as an unsolicited move.

A common flaw in the rise of nationalism among small nations is a loss of self-awareness. Intervening before they resolve their conflicts would not earn Austria any gratitude.

…

Austria wasn’t the only one choosing to wait and see, Britain and France also opted to observe the situation.

The myriad conflicts among South American nations meant that the war between Chile and Bolivia could potentially escalate into a larger South American conflict.

Getting involved early would clearly be a disadvantage, and if the wrong side were backed, even the great powers could suffer severe losses.

At the very least, it could mean losing an entire market for goods. Under normal circumstances, small South American nations lack the confidence to defy major powers, but if they have backing, the situation could change unpredictably.

…

Since the outbreak of war with Chile, Bolivian President Hilarión Daza has been under immense pressure.

Unlike the fervent nationalists at home, Daza, as a national leader, had a more realistic view of the situation.

Militarily, Bolivia was indeed no match for Chile. That was one problem. Another was Bolivia’s lack of international support.

This wasn’t entirely his fault. Bolivia had yet to enter a truly democratic era. The so-called government elections were essentially manipulated by military caudillos behind the scenes.

The leaders pulling the strings behind the scenes aimed to balance relations among the great powers, but the governments they established inevitably lacked the capacity to refuse foreign pressures. This precarious diplomacy was difficult to sustain, and Daza lacked the ability to manage it effectively.

Now that war had broken out, not a single great power had openly supported Bolivia.

From a contemporary observer’s standpoint, Chile was the aggressor in this conflict, having initiated the invasion of Bolivia.

Under normal circumstances, public opinion should have sympathized with the victim. At the very least, countries would be expected to verbally condemn Chile’s military invasion.

However, Bolivia’s failed diplomatic balancing act in recent years had left Britain, France, and Austria resentful. Internationally, the Bolivian government had already been struggling, and the situation worsened further.

With the three great powers silent, other nations, unwilling to offend the major players, naturally refrained from stepping in to uphold justice for Bolivia.

President Hilarión Daza addressed his advisors, “Gentlemen, the war has already begun. This war concerns Bolivia’s fate. We cannot afford to lose.

If we are defeated, we will not only lose our most important source of revenue, the saltpeter mines but also our critical access to the sea, becoming a landlocked nation.

For the glory of the Bolivian Republic, I hope everyone will give their all to secure victory in this war.”

Foreign Minister Pradel Guerra added, “Mr. President, the issues on the battlefield must be resolved by the military. Aside from ensuring logistical support, we must also seek solutions beyond the battlefield.

To increase our chances of winning, I propose temporarily allying with Peru, which also has significant conflicts with Chile, to jointly counter the Chileans.”

In a country dominated by military factions, Pradel Guerra could not openly admit that Bolivia was outmatched by Chile, so he resorted to diplomatic phrasing, trying to present the situation in the best light possible.

President Hilarión Daza nodded in agreement, “Hmm, that’s a good suggestion. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should send representatives to engage with the Peruvian government as soon as possible. As long as their terms aren’t overly excessive, we can agree for now. We need allies at this moment. Does anyone else have suggestions?”